Climate Change Impacts
Key projected climate change impacts that the project team considered for the San Juan National Forest include:
A warming trend and increased average annual temperatures
Variable precipitation patterns with decreased snowpack and earlier snowmelt and peak runoffs
Increased drought that may drive fires and insect outbreaks
The relative proportions of component species may change
Climate change will present challenges and opportunities for accomplishing the management objectives of the San Juan National Forest, including:
The dense understory of white fir and Gambel oak currently acts as ladder fuels contributing to wildfire hazard in the area
The forest has been subjected to a range of insects and diseases, such as western pine beetle, fir engraver, Douglas-fir beetle, root disease, and dwarf mistletoe
Interactions of climate change, fire, drought, and insect outbreaks may lead to changes in species dominance for novel species
Increasing structural heterogeneity will break up fuels and reduce the chance of large, catastrophic wildfires